Different Charts Give Different Answers

Different types of charts answer different questions and serve different roles for your winery.  Make sure you know the differences so you can have the analysis you need to answer your questions.  Otherwise you run the risk of making false conclusions that can lead to flawed decision making based on incomplete information.

You Are Here

Most often presented to you as a grid of data that summarizes year over year performance for a set of metrics.  Many of you encountered these in bunches while doing your annual plan for 2023.  You saw year over year revenue, customer counts, new customers, lapsed customers, and others.

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This can tell you the totals for these metrics at the point in time of the grid, frequently over the past three to five years.  It does quickly tell you the current value for these key metrics.  It also shows you previous totals, so you can get the impression of a trend.  However, you really have poor insight into what made up those totals.  You need a different type of chart to understand what went into making that number.

How Did We Get Here?

Two types of charts can help you understand how you got the result.  You either want to see the trend that built to the total or you want to see the composition of that total.  To see the trend, you’ll most often have the x-axis as a unit of time.  So take the 5 year sample from the data tables and turn into weekly totals, with each year being a separate color line.  Now you can see things like seasonal differences, the key windows when the different years separated from one another and more.

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Another way to gain insight into what built the total involves showing the composition of the total.  Here, you’ll commonly see stacked bar charts with color blocks representing a different characteristic of the data.  So you could show 5 years of total revenue as five bars, with color blocks for each customer type.  Now you can see the contribution from general consumers, different wine clubs, distributors, and more.  The comparative differences across the years tell you much more about the year over year trends than just the number itself.

Are We Improving?

You work and work but how do you know when your winery actually improved?  Improvement involves more than a temporary spike in performance.  A spike in revenue may lift results for a quarter, but unless you can sustain and build on it, your business will settle back to the previous level of performance.  To drive that sustained climb to higher results, you need to know when you have lifted the system performance of the key drivers of your business.  For example, showing a sustained increase in new club sign ups or increasing the percentage of general consumers who make a second purchase will both lift annual revenue.   To see these changes as early as possible so you can amplify the positive changes and correct any drops in performance, you need to use statistical analysis and chart out the system performance level.  This also becomes incredibly valuable when projecting out for future performance.

Going back to the earlier example, an unusual spike in March orders, whether from a distributor placing an order early or a valued customer placing a one time order for a wedding, may put you up +4% on  your projection at the end of Q1.  However, if it isn’t a sustained lift, it could be a dangerous misinterpretation to carry that lift forward across the remainder of the year.  On the flip side, if you know that lift came from unexpectedly strong results from your club acquisition strategy that shows repeated and sustained lift in that area, you can carry the lift forward through the year with more confidence.  This insight may give you more confidence in an investment under consideration or free up budget for other strategic initiatives.